* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 67 72 77 84 83 84 81 79 74 72 69 65 60 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 67 72 77 84 83 84 81 79 74 72 69 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 61 66 73 80 81 80 77 72 68 63 58 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 4 6 12 17 14 21 18 17 8 5 2 5 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 6 1 0 -1 -5 -2 0 1 2 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 103 110 103 114 63 55 48 33 29 47 37 40 358 327 212 199 151 SST (C) 27.7 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.1 24.8 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 151 153 157 161 157 157 148 146 142 140 137 133 126 112 105 105 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 78 77 77 73 71 69 64 62 58 54 49 48 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 13 16 16 19 19 19 16 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 65 62 53 46 34 17 31 26 19 33 44 49 39 45 31 25 16 200 MB DIV 81 85 127 147 113 106 101 65 46 38 -14 -19 -17 -17 -14 3 -28 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 5 2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 7 2 4 LAND (KM) 221 247 265 308 318 272 294 331 453 584 746 816 893 1001 1092 1278 1488 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 91.3 92.7 94.1 95.6 98.5 101.7 104.5 106.9 109.1 111.1 113.2 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 10 10 11 13 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 6 9 13 21 16 14 11 8 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. 5. 6. 9. 9. 9. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 27. 34. 33. 34. 31. 29. 24. 22. 19. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.4 90.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 10.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 7.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 62.3% 46.6% 33.4% 21.6% 52.3% 49.2% 18.2% Logistic: 10.2% 41.1% 24.3% 16.7% 3.1% 14.8% 8.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 4.8% 15.2% 13.4% 5.5% 0.4% 8.3% 5.7% 0.3% Consensus: 9.7% 39.5% 28.1% 18.6% 8.4% 25.1% 21.0% 6.9% DTOPS: 21.0% 54.0% 42.0% 27.0% 22.0% 35.0% 18.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##