* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 63 68 75 77 80 81 81 79 77 74 72 67 63 59 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 63 68 75 77 80 81 81 79 77 74 72 67 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 64 68 73 77 82 85 84 81 76 70 65 58 51 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 10 4 8 18 16 14 20 16 12 3 4 4 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 -5 -3 0 2 0 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 91 92 86 106 95 45 64 56 39 37 51 45 31 319 205 225 192 SST (C) 27.0 27.8 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.0 29.3 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.4 25.5 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 143 151 153 157 157 160 153 146 144 139 138 137 128 119 106 103 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 6 5 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 76 77 76 74 73 67 65 58 55 49 47 42 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 11 13 13 10 11 12 14 15 16 14 15 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 60 51 46 17 30 18 22 16 36 58 45 56 44 42 42 200 MB DIV 87 90 98 118 126 91 128 76 61 17 -8 -32 -8 -31 -4 -3 0 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 5 4 1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 211 230 261 273 324 290 289 341 401 518 668 783 836 921 1002 1164 1360 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.2 91.5 92.9 94.3 97.1 100.2 103.0 105.6 108.0 110.2 112.3 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 11 10 10 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 6 9 14 19 18 14 9 7 5 5 6 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. -0. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 18. 25. 27. 30. 31. 31. 29. 27. 24. 22. 17. 13. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.2 88.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 42.1% 33.9% 25.1% 14.6% 48.9% 40.6% 16.2% Logistic: 12.9% 39.0% 23.0% 16.8% 2.7% 22.4% 15.6% 5.7% Bayesian: 6.4% 18.1% 17.5% 9.0% 1.7% 9.4% 3.3% 0.4% Consensus: 11.0% 33.1% 24.8% 17.0% 6.3% 26.9% 19.9% 7.4% DTOPS: 21.0% 42.0% 37.0% 30.0% 19.0% 37.0% 17.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##