* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 55 58 64 69 69 77 77 79 77 77 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 55 58 64 69 69 77 77 79 77 77 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 56 61 67 73 79 81 81 76 70 61 52 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 7 5 13 19 13 16 21 18 9 8 3 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 -1 0 2 -5 0 5 6 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 98 104 98 102 121 99 65 65 68 38 48 42 15 337 275 197 186 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.6 28.4 28.6 29.4 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.4 25.3 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 141 150 152 161 158 157 151 145 142 138 133 128 117 106 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 6 5 7 6 7 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 78 78 78 75 72 70 65 59 54 51 47 46 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 8 12 13 16 17 19 17 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 68 61 51 32 20 35 31 19 44 58 62 55 57 45 43 200 MB DIV 57 94 85 94 115 86 95 113 79 55 18 -19 -10 -26 -8 -24 4 700-850 TADV 7 6 5 5 5 4 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 5 LAND (KM) 113 193 208 242 253 323 246 281 320 428 553 712 743 802 898 1023 1195 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.4 88.5 89.7 91.0 92.4 95.4 98.3 101.4 104.1 106.6 108.9 111.0 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 5 8 20 15 15 12 8 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. 0. 0. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 13. 19. 24. 24. 32. 32. 34. 32. 32. 28. 26. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.2 87.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 27.3% 22.1% 21.1% 12.3% 27.7% 37.6% 18.3% Logistic: 5.6% 29.2% 13.0% 8.5% 1.5% 15.7% 16.4% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.4% Consensus: 5.6% 20.2% 12.4% 10.2% 4.7% 15.1% 18.9% 8.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 20.0% 11.0% 8.0% 6.0% 10.0% 19.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##