* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 37 44 51 62 70 73 77 81 79 76 76 72 70 V (KT) LAND 35 38 38 38 41 48 54 66 74 77 80 85 83 80 80 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 32 31 31 32 35 41 49 56 63 69 71 70 67 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 5 4 3 7 13 15 19 20 18 17 9 4 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 3 1 2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 0 0 1 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 47 111 111 131 69 137 47 56 40 33 44 37 25 11 334 211 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 25.8 25.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 134 142 149 155 160 161 155 145 142 139 137 135 123 117 102 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 6 5 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 72 75 78 77 79 81 78 75 74 68 67 59 56 52 50 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 12 13 14 17 20 21 21 24 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 75 86 79 67 61 43 25 25 22 31 25 50 62 64 69 69 70 200 MB DIV 18 52 74 60 80 96 48 96 78 39 56 37 -17 -3 0 -16 -7 700-850 TADV 5 9 9 8 7 5 3 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) -8 79 166 181 214 260 247 243 292 341 450 590 728 761 860 954 1102 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.4 13.5 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 87.0 88.3 89.4 90.5 93.4 96.5 99.4 102.5 105.2 107.5 109.5 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 13 15 15 15 15 12 10 10 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 3 4 11 19 17 14 8 6 4 4 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 12. 10. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 27. 35. 38. 42. 46. 44. 41. 42. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 85.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 18.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 31.1% 11.4% 7.1% 0.8% 10.4% 6.3% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 16.5% 9.0% 2.4% 0.3% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##