* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 26 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 26 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 27 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 0 6 8 12 13 18 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 1 4 2 1 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 253 113 148 176 185 171 177 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.7 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 110 106 103 103 102 97 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 54 53 53 50 45 42 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 17 16 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 41 45 55 51 42 40 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -2 -42 -26 8 5 21 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 4 5 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 485 504 525 560 599 677 720 784 818 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.6 114.1 115.1 116.0 117.2 117.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -19. -26. -35. -44. -46. -47. -48. -49. -49. -48. -48. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 112.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##