* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 50 48 45 42 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 50 48 45 42 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 50 46 42 38 34 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 16 11 5 4 1 7 15 15 19 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -6 -6 -1 -1 3 4 1 7 1 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 36 39 38 61 33 58 176 179 187 161 164 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.3 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 118 117 116 117 118 114 107 105 99 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 70 68 64 58 55 50 48 44 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 25 24 24 23 20 17 14 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 60 58 53 54 52 62 59 63 53 41 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 50 40 33 16 -7 -10 -16 -11 4 -2 -2 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -4 0 0 0 2 7 3 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 546 582 577 585 598 634 693 767 852 898 946 998 1055 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.5 117.6 118.7 119.6 120.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -15. -17. -20. -23. -28. -36. -46. -54. -61. -67. -66. -64. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.5 109.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##