* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 72 67 61 56 52 44 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 72 67 61 56 52 44 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 74 69 65 56 51 47 41 35 29 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 16 16 13 6 3 2 7 11 12 22 25 29 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -7 -4 0 2 1 4 1 1 -7 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 18 26 37 36 30 67 142 166 170 164 155 157 150 164 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.3 24.8 25.0 24.9 24.3 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 119 116 118 115 109 111 110 103 102 98 96 98 98 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 74 67 62 56 55 48 46 41 38 33 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 25 24 24 25 26 24 20 18 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 74 72 67 58 62 64 72 71 68 61 45 36 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 23 31 33 45 25 -5 0 -20 -9 5 6 -3 -40 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -8 -11 -3 -1 0 1 6 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 490 527 527 544 596 675 754 822 884 946 1014 1068 1125 1194 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.6 110.7 111.6 112.5 113.7 114.8 115.7 116.8 117.8 118.8 119.7 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -36. -47. -55. -63. -71. -78. -83. -84. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.6 108.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##