* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/17/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 70 67 63 58 52 49 43 38 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 70 67 63 58 52 49 43 38 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 65 60 53 49 45 41 38 34 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 14 15 9 8 1 4 9 17 24 29 26 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -5 0 0 3 1 -2 0 0 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 43 31 34 35 46 43 64 113 162 160 151 154 142 143 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.0 25.8 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.1 25.5 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 135 122 117 119 117 112 116 110 109 111 110 107 105 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 74 74 70 63 59 52 52 48 47 44 39 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 24 22 23 22 22 20 20 18 16 13 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 80 76 76 71 54 63 54 71 65 66 52 48 44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 40 26 37 40 38 -1 0 -20 -7 3 33 26 15 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -4 -5 -7 0 -2 1 0 3 1 1 0 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 407 481 551 540 574 632 714 822 891 959 1005 1046 1075 1099 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 18.0 18.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.1 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.9 114.1 115.1 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.7 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -26. -32. -37. -44. -51. -58. -64. -68. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.8 106.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 10.7% 9.5% 8.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.8% 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##