* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/16/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 71 69 61 53 43 39 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 71 69 61 53 43 39 31 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 71 67 57 47 40 35 31 28 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 18 17 18 12 8 2 4 10 18 26 33 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 0 -2 0 1 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 53 52 51 39 51 62 46 33 121 159 162 154 150 144 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 24.9 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 135 122 120 116 110 114 111 107 108 105 104 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 77 76 72 68 61 58 50 48 46 42 40 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 25 26 23 20 17 16 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 82 72 73 89 84 73 54 60 41 54 39 45 33 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 98 60 40 36 27 35 1 -8 -34 -15 -1 12 19 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -10 -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 349 371 426 497 553 579 603 691 777 835 906 957 1001 1008 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.1 106.1 107.1 108.2 109.4 111.4 112.8 113.8 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.6 118.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -17. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -22. -32. -36. -44. -48. -54. -59. -65. -71. -71. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.0 105.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 14.8% 12.2% 10.9% 6.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.5% 4.2% 3.7% 2.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##