* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 65 71 71 71 65 58 49 44 38 34 28 24 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 65 71 71 71 65 58 49 44 38 34 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 57 59 63 64 62 56 49 43 37 31 27 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 14 18 21 20 18 19 17 20 14 14 8 9 8 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 0 1 3 2 4 1 -5 -1 -3 -2 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 85 82 83 93 95 90 78 70 52 54 49 31 15 66 115 149 142 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.4 25.8 25.8 25.3 24.4 24.7 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 150 148 149 149 145 148 121 120 114 104 107 111 107 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 80 81 80 77 78 77 77 73 70 66 57 50 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 18 20 20 25 25 26 25 23 20 19 15 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 59 82 89 92 99 106 100 91 106 95 84 61 69 50 47 44 51 200 MB DIV 51 54 88 100 137 147 111 84 36 36 10 -23 -9 -14 -14 -18 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 3 1 -5 -9 -4 -8 -5 -4 2 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 328 311 296 297 299 291 330 391 520 550 534 572 637 700 754 794 838 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.2 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.9 105.7 107.5 109.6 111.3 112.5 113.6 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 7 9 10 10 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 18 17 16 10 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 9. 11. 14. 12. 9. 5. 3. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 26. 26. 26. 20. 13. 4. -1. -7. -11. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 23.1% 19.8% 18.7% 10.7% 18.7% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 15.1% 6.5% 3.1% 0.8% 5.8% 7.7% 2.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 13.2% 6.3% 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 17.1% 10.9% 7.8% 3.9% 8.6% 8.0% 0.8% DTOPS: 9.0% 35.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 23.0% 17.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##