* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992021 07/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 43 46 53 60 67 69 71 70 66 66 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 43 46 53 60 67 69 71 70 66 66 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 33 35 39 46 52 58 63 67 67 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 9 10 9 10 10 13 9 9 4 9 4 1 5 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 356 60 112 130 115 93 66 57 73 90 59 79 75 27 242 248 309 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.8 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 136 137 137 136 138 139 141 139 142 138 133 129 121 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 61 65 68 68 68 65 62 61 58 60 56 56 53 48 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 12 14 17 18 19 20 19 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 16 30 26 22 31 32 39 49 61 60 58 55 54 46 49 200 MB DIV 10 22 42 24 -9 -9 31 38 62 80 58 31 44 27 24 43 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1924 1975 2026 2077 2128 2247 2362 2469 2453 2291 2143 1964 1751 1527 1299 1144 1057 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 9 10 10 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 7 7 6 6 9 12 7 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 13. 16. 23. 30. 37. 39. 41. 40. 36. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 125.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.4% 12.6% 11.1% 0.0% 11.4% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 6.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.8% 5.1% 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 3.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##