* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 08/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 31 34 36 35 33 31 29 30 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 31 34 36 35 33 31 29 30 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 24 22 24 25 26 26 19 15 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 4 7 5 9 4 -1 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 85 83 87 79 72 72 80 82 94 117 114 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 155 155 152 151 150 144 134 130 129 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 62 61 63 69 73 76 76 69 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 13 14 15 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 47 62 65 82 88 76 63 54 48 61 73 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 55 61 68 46 71 73 83 58 48 54 34 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 7 5 1 2 2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1132 1094 1055 1002 950 853 710 568 492 469 466 536 612 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 23 24 19 14 12 8 2 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 117.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 08/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 08/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##