* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/25/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 40 40 38 34 29 24 19 17 19 19 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 40 40 38 34 29 24 19 17 19 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 30 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 1 6 14 16 21 27 29 25 23 17 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -7 -7 -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 -2 -4 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 81 65 41 35 53 349 198 236 246 225 203 208 222 242 242 235 240 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.9 25.4 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 144 137 129 121 122 117 122 125 122 123 124 127 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 62 63 63 60 55 54 53 53 51 46 44 40 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 -5 -11 -17 -25 -22 -19 -3 -2 2 1 -8 -21 -44 -45 -65 200 MB DIV 22 39 25 40 49 15 13 4 27 19 14 0 28 -24 -28 -33 18 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 2 2 3 6 7 6 7 0 LAND (KM) 2448 2368 2218 2074 1936 1685 1465 1275 1077 867 664 476 310 314 493 656 854 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.7 135.1 136.4 137.7 140.0 142.0 143.8 145.7 147.7 149.7 151.9 154.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 11 9 8 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 11 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 15. 13. 9. 4. -1. -6. -8. -6. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 132.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/25/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 5.0% 4.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/25/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##