* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/24/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 35 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 29 32 35 35 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 4 1 4 10 17 30 31 28 33 38 36 33 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -1 6 3 -2 3 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 106 99 73 64 117 222 217 221 253 243 240 225 229 239 254 282 295 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.2 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 143 143 137 123 112 107 110 112 114 122 120 120 121 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 64 62 61 59 56 51 54 52 54 51 48 46 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 -2 -14 -20 -22 -26 -16 -18 -4 -18 -18 -32 -42 -62 -55 -61 200 MB DIV 9 25 34 37 33 27 25 2 7 15 -8 -15 32 -17 -78 -13 16 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 2 0 3 2 6 3 4 7 9 19 14 12 13 LAND (KM) 2273 2361 2385 2231 2073 1776 1514 1284 1064 841 615 408 198 69 45 96 200 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.8 133.2 134.6 136.0 138.7 141.1 143.2 145.2 147.2 149.2 151.0 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 13 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 7. 1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 130.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.7% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/24/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##