* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 39 43 45 42 36 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 39 43 45 42 36 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 9 3 2 8 15 20 26 32 40 49 54 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 0 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -7 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 97 106 98 85 83 70 107 188 240 256 250 251 242 242 229 231 228 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.4 26.5 25.1 24.2 23.9 24.1 24.1 24.3 24.7 24.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 146 142 142 145 139 130 115 105 102 103 103 105 109 109 112 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 76 70 68 65 62 60 55 51 51 55 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 0 8 6 -3 -12 -28 -35 -35 -31 -28 -26 -29 -31 -46 -56 200 MB DIV 62 57 51 29 6 4 24 29 28 10 -16 -15 4 15 10 10 9 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 3 1 4 6 11 10 4 LAND (KM) 1797 1824 1866 1911 1979 2140 2276 2220 1925 1666 1420 1223 1016 838 701 595 510 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.0 124.0 125.1 126.3 128.9 131.7 134.3 136.9 139.2 141.4 143.2 145.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 8 6 7 15 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 28. 27. 26. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -20. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 23. 25. 22. 16. 11. 4. -2. -10. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 122.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 13.7% 4.9% 2.3% 0.9% 4.3% 7.4% 11.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% 2.5% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##