* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982021 07/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 39 43 47 44 41 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 39 43 47 44 41 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 8 10 9 2 0 7 10 16 21 30 35 42 50 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 -1 -6 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 68 80 109 96 88 60 96 184 266 242 250 240 245 241 238 232 239 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 25.7 24.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 147 144 143 142 137 121 112 102 101 101 103 104 108 110 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 78 77 76 70 66 64 61 56 51 48 48 46 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 10 12 10 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -2 0 1 1 -3 -19 -33 -32 -35 -30 -26 -18 -26 -21 -36 200 MB DIV 54 61 53 40 12 9 45 59 46 20 2 -17 -26 -8 24 18 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 9 12 8 LAND (KM) 1753 1769 1798 1835 1877 2004 2148 2286 2154 1892 1668 1478 1292 1099 910 741 581 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.3 123.3 124.4 126.9 129.6 132.3 134.8 137.1 139.1 140.8 142.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 10 7 10 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 2. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 19. 23. 27. 24. 21. 16. 8. 2. -4. -12. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 120.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982021 INVEST 07/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 4.0% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982021 INVEST 07/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##