* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 32 32 31 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 31 32 32 31 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 1 4 8 16 18 18 18 28 33 41 46 49 48 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 5 0 3 4 4 4 3 5 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 349 356 6 32 273 271 265 285 272 260 248 249 239 234 240 252 275 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.4 26.1 25.8 24.7 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.7 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 146 144 136 127 123 121 109 101 95 93 99 109 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 55 54 51 49 47 47 45 45 39 36 31 28 22 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -31 -41 -34 -25 -32 -23 -23 -25 -30 -35 -75 -88 -62 -47 -34 -11 200 MB DIV 29 28 25 17 26 1 -10 -50 -24 -17 -6 10 0 -3 -2 -30 29 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 3 3 3 11 7 8 16 18 12 -9 -23 -21 -11 2 LAND (KM) 815 900 940 953 966 1029 1074 1113 1194 1263 1299 1302 1313 1374 1514 1697 1824 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.6 21.4 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.8 112.9 114.0 115.0 117.0 118.7 120.3 121.9 123.6 125.1 125.8 126.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 9 9 7 3 1 6 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 14 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 26. 24. 22. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -6. -13. -21. -26. -34. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 110.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.30 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.52 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.7% 4.3% 2.2% 0.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 9.5% 7.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##