* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 44 52 56 55 54 51 47 43 37 28 21 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 44 52 56 55 54 51 47 43 37 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 30 29 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 11 9 6 10 7 2 7 11 20 25 35 37 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -1 0 4 0 4 4 3 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 101 92 73 72 66 35 32 83 295 286 258 252 257 255 260 279 284 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.2 26.1 24.2 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 150 149 149 150 148 147 145 143 135 123 104 115 121 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 41 45 47 49 49 51 49 51 51 52 49 48 46 42 40 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 7 20 33 38 35 34 18 0 -1 -1 -10 -15 -25 9 15 200 MB DIV 42 43 20 13 15 25 20 34 9 23 17 17 -6 -22 -10 -34 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 -3 4 3 3 8 3 0 -8 LAND (KM) 723 746 764 766 763 769 784 787 790 749 673 640 603 492 345 143 10 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.7 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.3 111.9 112.7 113.7 114.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 5 3 2 2 2 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 27 26 22 19 16 15 14 13 13 9 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 5. 2. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 24. 32. 36. 35. 34. 31. 27. 23. 17. 8. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 107.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.4% 3.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 9.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##