* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 07/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 46 47 45 43 39 37 32 29 25 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 46 47 45 43 39 37 32 29 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 33 31 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 19 22 24 16 14 11 16 19 20 25 31 29 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 1 -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 4 6 4 SHEAR DIR 64 62 57 51 47 36 35 14 339 300 294 288 277 264 279 294 302 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.1 28.6 27.7 26.2 24.9 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 158 157 151 148 153 144 128 115 117 110 103 102 105 112 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 78 80 79 77 74 74 71 71 67 66 61 59 57 55 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 36 22 10 5 8 -1 -1 -8 -27 -33 -36 -37 -26 -25 -19 -23 200 MB DIV 53 82 71 68 51 27 22 11 9 2 13 19 11 -10 -5 -10 -10 700-850 TADV 6 3 2 0 -2 -3 4 -2 9 4 10 9 9 10 10 7 9 LAND (KM) 296 324 366 397 433 532 681 820 997 1222 1504 1765 2029 2095 1773 1466 1174 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 99.4 100.8 102.2 103.7 106.8 110.1 113.5 117.0 120.6 124.3 128.0 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 28 25 24 15 9 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 22. 20. 18. 14. 12. 7. 4. -0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 98.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 07/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 07/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##