* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 11/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 37 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 10 10 27 37 43 41 45 47 52 62 68 71 67 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 2 0 0 12 7 5 9 6 5 2 -9 1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 278 278 266 254 234 235 227 231 230 237 241 254 256 263 242 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.9 25.9 25.6 24.6 25.4 28.5 27.4 22.8 22.1 20.3 7.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 148 142 136 132 121 119 110 120 154 143 96 91 73 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.9 -55.5 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 72 72 66 61 55 51 45 38 32 26 32 42 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 16 16 13 12 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 13 19 10 -11 -25 -8 0 18 4 29 12 -35 1 19 -25 200 MB DIV 112 106 99 114 97 46 18 -3 1 8 1 -34 -20 -10 64 52 41 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -6 -5 -2 8 7 7 -4 -23 -20 -9 18 59 138 58 -66 LAND (KM) 1229 1244 1231 1221 1213 1131 1074 1016 847 611 266 42 -303 -426 -581 -999 -928 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.6 15.5 17.5 19.2 20.5 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.9 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.6 118.5 119.9 120.8 121.1 120.1 117.8 114.5 110.3 105.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 10 8 7 10 14 18 22 24 28 36 46 49 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 10 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 15 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -23. -32. -38. -45. -52. -62. -76. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 1. -7. -17. -29. -37. -42. -48. -54. -63. -81. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 114.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.72 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 27.9% 24.7% 17.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.6% 4.5% 2.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 5.4% 3.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 14.3% 11.0% 6.9% 0.2% 6.8% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##