* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 11/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 48 46 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 48 46 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 35 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 9 11 19 22 25 31 38 40 47 50 65 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 2 -2 3 11 5 5 7 0 1 1 1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 39 26 355 324 300 283 238 219 224 225 235 238 244 246 241 240 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.3 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.9 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 149 148 146 145 140 134 132 136 132 135 135 146 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 2 2 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 75 73 73 69 64 60 56 52 49 47 44 40 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 15 16 18 18 17 15 14 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 44 42 29 35 36 8 -14 -20 5 18 15 25 21 -6 31 24 200 MB DIV 89 114 130 113 108 106 58 64 27 1 -10 -17 -1 -3 22 30 26 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -7 -6 -7 0 0 6 3 1 -2 -5 -6 -2 9 14 47 LAND (KM) 1172 1242 1312 1330 1339 1339 1321 1269 1222 1152 1029 854 667 465 141 -46 -597 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.4 13.4 14.8 16.1 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.4 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.2 117.8 119.2 120.2 120.7 120.7 119.9 118.2 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 7 9 10 12 19 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 16 13 11 10 9 7 5 5 11 2 4 3 13 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -32. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 22. 23. 21. 15. 7. 1. -5. -10. -15. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 112.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 11/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.74 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.9% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 10.5% 5.2% 2.4% 0.3% 7.4% 12.0% 4.3% Bayesian: 4.7% 3.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 14.1% 9.5% 1.0% 0.1% 9.7% 11.2% 1.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 11/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##