* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 11/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 42 48 52 48 41 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 42 48 52 48 41 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 2 4 6 11 16 24 30 31 35 39 42 52 66 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 0 2 0 11 7 6 8 4 1 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 85 27 12 310 306 275 258 225 220 218 231 229 241 235 247 241 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.3 28.0 28.5 27.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 150 147 146 141 134 136 131 127 128 146 153 145 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.7 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 4 0 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 77 74 73 70 66 62 58 53 50 46 40 36 40 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 16 18 19 20 17 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 35 43 38 40 26 0 -22 4 3 17 13 -5 15 19 42 200 MB DIV 58 93 105 124 119 133 80 60 33 16 -10 -4 5 11 15 41 93 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -9 -3 -5 -4 3 4 6 0 -3 -11 -5 -2 15 23 183 LAND (KM) 1076 1141 1212 1267 1285 1298 1277 1223 1153 1044 899 686 445 179 104 -459 -567 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 13.3 14.6 16.1 17.4 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.5 113.5 114.4 115.3 117.0 118.4 119.5 120.1 119.9 119.0 117.1 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 6 8 11 14 14 21 31 38 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 16 14 11 10 8 7 12 3 0 0 12 16 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -17. -23. -33. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 28. 32. 28. 21. 12. 5. -1. -6. -11. -21. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 111.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 11/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 18.3% 9.3% 4.9% 0.7% 16.5% 26.7% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 7.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.2% 5.5% 8.9% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 11/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##