* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 42 40 41 41 40 35 30 31 31 31 32 34 36 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 42 40 41 41 40 35 30 31 31 31 32 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 40 38 36 33 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 30 25 26 22 18 27 21 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 73 77 69 63 80 81 88 94 79 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 148 151 144 130 128 127 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.2 -50.9 -50.2 -50.9 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 5 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 77 79 79 78 78 77 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 13 12 13 14 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 17 25 18 53 64 65 78 65 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 102 89 63 86 48 71 60 54 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -7 -8 -6 -6 0 -6 -7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 410 357 303 262 222 216 289 213 103 164 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 19.3 20.6 21.1 22.1 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.0 106.6 106.5 106.4 107.4 108.7 109.3 110.5 111.7 112.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 6 9 6 5 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 16 17 19 11 5 4 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 6. 6. 5. -0. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 107.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##