* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 35 37 41 42 41 40 40 37 34 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 34 35 37 41 42 40 39 39 36 33 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 28 27 26 24 26 22 12 10 9 9 6 15 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 2 5 3 -1 -5 -1 0 12 3 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 88 79 78 82 68 63 57 65 62 35 89 147 135 109 136 174 193 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.8 25.5 23.9 24.6 24.8 24.9 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 148 146 143 145 147 148 142 119 102 108 110 111 88 81 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -50.8 -51.1 -50.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 10 6 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 70 72 77 80 78 75 77 71 70 60 56 49 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 56 72 62 47 49 57 78 84 77 41 32 43 27 28 0 200 MB DIV 122 121 111 112 120 90 83 67 69 37 11 -7 13 7 -7 -3 2 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -8 -6 -6 -20 -4 -12 -8 -7 -5 10 17 17 2 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 595 569 537 483 437 344 238 161 230 78 28 98 261 312 339 390 379 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.4 19.8 21.4 22.7 23.6 24.3 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.5 108.4 108.1 107.8 107.3 107.0 107.1 107.8 109.0 110.9 113.1 115.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 5 6 8 9 9 11 10 9 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 15 13 12 15 21 32 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 30. 30. 30. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 16. 17. 16. 15. 15. 12. 9. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 108.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##