* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 39 46 51 53 53 50 48 45 42 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 39 46 51 53 53 50 48 45 42 40 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 40 41 40 38 35 31 27 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 19 16 16 18 15 16 20 24 27 25 22 23 26 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 3 5 5 2 2 6 1 2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 69 61 56 48 56 46 84 98 90 100 106 108 93 104 133 131 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 152 153 154 153 152 146 141 131 128 131 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 67 65 67 71 75 75 76 74 68 62 58 56 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 10 9 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 40 47 60 58 77 70 77 81 78 84 64 62 50 45 31 200 MB DIV 85 87 92 88 84 88 80 73 65 57 22 48 27 13 16 12 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -21 -22 -14 -18 -6 1 -1 -1 0 0 2 4 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 921 892 862 827 792 731 669 576 478 388 355 394 431 528 631 718 767 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 10 6 1 1 1 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -18. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 16. 21. 23. 23. 20. 18. 15. 12. 10. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 112.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.4% 18.0% 12.3% 0.0% 17.1% 17.3% 11.7% Logistic: 0.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 2.7% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.3% 7.4% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% 6.7% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##