* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 47 55 56 51 48 44 43 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 47 55 56 51 48 44 43 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 21 22 23 24 26 25 24 22 21 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 21 18 18 17 15 13 15 18 21 25 20 23 21 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 1 -4 0 -2 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 64 91 110 108 99 107 83 100 87 79 72 86 89 102 86 98 102 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 153 154 155 153 151 150 147 139 134 132 124 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 67 65 65 66 68 64 64 63 59 57 55 54 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 20 19 17 15 13 13 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 57 48 48 61 72 92 122 124 115 95 80 71 56 85 51 200 MB DIV 74 71 66 84 75 77 46 54 43 38 45 51 11 50 21 16 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 6 7 6 -9 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 938 900 863 838 814 745 721 695 684 699 719 725 764 850 947 1021 1039 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 4 7 7 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 17 17 16 17 16 14 12 11 8 5 3 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 14. 14. 10. 8. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 22. 30. 31. 26. 23. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 112.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##