* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 60 65 70 67 66 62 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 60 65 70 67 66 62 62 63 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 39 44 49 53 54 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 16 11 8 6 10 13 15 18 19 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 52 81 110 91 92 120 135 102 91 86 88 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 154 155 155 154 154 153 151 150 149 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 65 62 63 65 65 64 63 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 15 16 20 21 24 23 24 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 62 76 71 74 71 89 106 111 118 114 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 84 83 92 80 48 43 36 62 63 58 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -5 -4 -12 -9 -6 -3 -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 809 775 740 728 693 663 618 609 617 653 710 743 774 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 16 17 17 15 14 14 12 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 13. 15. 20. 18. 18. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 30. 35. 40. 37. 36. 32. 32. 33. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 111.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.62 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 20.9% 19.7% 13.7% 0.0% 19.3% 19.9% 16.2% Logistic: 0.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.1% 1.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.0% 7.1% 4.8% 0.1% 7.1% 7.0% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##