* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/24/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 58 63 68 71 70 70 66 66 64 61 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 58 63 68 71 70 70 66 66 64 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 40 45 51 55 58 59 59 57 55 51 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 20 19 15 11 11 14 18 19 17 17 18 19 20 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -5 -6 -2 0 0 0 -2 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 38 36 54 73 85 73 98 112 103 95 79 66 73 78 82 92 87 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 150 152 154 156 155 154 151 149 146 141 138 133 124 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 69 65 68 65 62 64 62 64 64 66 63 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 15 15 19 20 22 24 25 27 26 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 47 63 69 64 71 85 96 103 102 106 96 81 87 95 114 200 MB DIV 141 106 102 98 89 62 52 27 58 32 43 21 5 7 38 27 38 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -8 -7 -6 -12 -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 824 819 813 798 786 746 695 643 671 691 709 732 800 865 938 1013 1108 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 13 14 17 17 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 16. 17. 15. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 28. 33. 38. 41. 40. 41. 36. 36. 34. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 110.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.72 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 26.9% 22.5% 15.4% 0.0% 20.4% 21.5% 23.2% Logistic: 0.6% 4.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3.7% 10.3% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.0% 10.5% 8.1% 5.5% 0.1% 8.0% 10.6% 9.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 12.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/24/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##