* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 48 58 67 69 68 67 65 61 58 55 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 39 48 58 67 69 68 67 65 61 58 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 35 34 32 29 27 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 12 12 19 19 18 23 22 23 19 22 19 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 6 0 1 1 2 4 7 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 47 64 91 67 73 99 78 98 109 116 113 105 100 100 109 105 86 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.4 27.2 27.5 27.0 27.4 26.6 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 147 148 146 145 141 133 126 136 140 135 139 130 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 8 5 6 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 70 69 73 75 78 79 78 72 70 64 62 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 16 17 19 21 22 22 23 24 24 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 50 58 60 64 64 53 84 69 92 107 101 81 71 69 75 80 200 MB DIV 100 110 114 104 117 101 89 80 63 78 63 62 22 15 -8 -11 4 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 3 0 1 -1 3 4 7 5 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 508 508 514 516 513 470 406 334 320 336 279 304 435 633 867 1026 1120 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.4 21.3 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.4 107.5 107.7 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.6 108.1 108.8 110.2 112.4 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 12 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 17 17 15 13 10 4 1 10 3 2 4 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 19. 19. 20. 19. 17. 15. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 38. 47. 49. 48. 47. 45. 41. 38. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% 6.4% 7.8% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2.1% 2.6% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##