* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 07/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 24 29 35 42 45 46 47 46 42 37 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 18 20 20 19 12 16 15 10 5 3 8 9 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 2 1 7 1 3 0 -3 -4 2 2 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 44 34 20 16 25 21 349 329 321 324 348 302 254 220 210 220 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.2 27.1 25.7 23.5 21.8 21.8 22.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 152 156 156 165 155 147 147 136 122 100 82 82 85 98 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 7 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 81 82 82 82 81 80 78 78 78 78 71 70 64 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 13 1 -8 -11 -7 0 28 18 33 34 49 79 64 78 114 200 MB DIV 55 62 63 65 68 82 133 125 112 74 50 34 33 28 0 11 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -8 -8 -6 0 -1 -6 -10 -9 3 -10 -3 -14 LAND (KM) 778 801 785 765 737 655 561 429 354 307 379 280 384 612 868 1230 1591 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.4 10.7 12.5 14.5 16.3 18.0 19.5 20.8 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 97.2 97.9 98.8 100.7 102.7 104.5 106.1 107.5 109.2 111.5 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 9 10 13 13 13 12 11 12 14 16 18 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 18 20 24 34 43 22 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 17. 12. 7. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 96.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 5.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.5% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##