* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 20 19 19 19 19 17 15 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 20 19 19 19 19 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 18 21 24 16 14 14 17 23 23 28 27 32 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 320 338 338 333 327 332 321 317 303 266 258 255 256 251 253 257 257 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 147 149 148 145 145 145 142 138 138 137 137 137 134 131 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 41 44 46 46 42 40 35 35 35 36 35 37 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -16 -21 -26 -37 -33 -34 -26 -19 -20 -6 -9 -14 -13 -29 -38 200 MB DIV -4 6 -1 -20 -31 -13 -18 1 -27 -20 -1 19 19 22 15 14 8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2276 2371 2292 2170 2026 1741 1499 1308 1141 1009 906 798 698 612 552 504 476 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.8 134.0 135.3 136.8 139.7 142.2 144.3 146.1 147.4 148.4 149.1 149.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 15 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 9 8 7 9 18 12 7 7 7 12 20 19 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 131.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##