* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 14 14 18 23 21 17 16 18 27 29 22 28 28 32 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 1 0 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 304 344 343 341 337 332 327 317 312 284 259 252 239 253 249 254 261 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 146 148 145 148 147 147 143 141 138 136 136 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 40 38 40 41 43 46 43 43 37 34 34 35 35 37 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -4 -12 -15 -29 -34 -41 -25 -23 -13 -4 -12 -13 -12 -39 -29 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -6 -9 -19 -25 -14 -20 -12 -25 2 22 26 15 13 6 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 2198 2291 2394 2303 2171 1879 1620 1393 1211 1054 921 798 689 574 478 421 422 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.9 131.8 132.8 134.0 135.4 138.4 141.1 143.5 145.6 147.3 148.6 149.6 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 8 8 6 9 9 10 8 8 7 9 16 15 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -6. -9. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 130.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##