* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 24 23 22 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 23 24 25 24 23 22 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 21 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 15 18 25 25 20 21 20 27 33 30 30 30 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 299 308 320 333 338 330 329 315 315 287 264 256 254 249 250 251 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 146 147 148 146 149 146 145 143 140 137 136 135 134 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 35 36 37 35 36 41 43 45 42 42 37 36 35 36 35 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -18 -11 -15 -19 -27 -41 -35 -42 -33 -34 -17 -33 -21 -30 -32 -36 200 MB DIV -7 -6 -8 -11 -16 -20 -13 -6 -2 -13 -3 6 22 16 26 -2 29 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -1 1 2 4 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 2105 2199 2302 2327 2203 1923 1634 1382 1177 1002 867 729 604 497 390 357 433 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.7 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.4 131.4 132.4 133.5 134.8 137.7 140.6 143.2 145.4 147.4 148.9 150.1 150.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 10 9 7 11 10 9 8 7 8 13 21 11 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 130.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##