* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 24 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 11 18 24 28 22 23 23 28 33 33 28 28 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 299 295 305 315 324 335 327 313 314 302 272 254 257 253 247 254 254 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 145 147 149 147 148 146 144 141 137 137 136 134 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 37 36 38 40 37 39 41 45 41 41 37 34 33 36 35 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -25 -18 -12 -16 -28 -38 -35 -39 -29 -28 -12 -24 -21 -20 -14 -31 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -6 -7 -18 -17 -15 0 5 -6 -19 3 13 26 27 18 6 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 2 3 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 2004 2082 2160 2263 2351 2094 1805 1542 1296 1117 955 812 673 551 436 360 366 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.3 131.1 132.1 133.2 135.9 138.8 141.5 144.0 146.0 147.8 149.2 150.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 11 12 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 11 10 9 8 7 10 18 16 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 129.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##