* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 28 25 23 20 19 19 20 20 18 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 28 25 23 20 19 19 20 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 30 28 26 24 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 10 11 16 20 21 20 20 21 24 28 24 28 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -6 -5 -3 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 281 277 288 303 324 321 313 300 291 275 259 246 243 235 236 240 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 142 148 148 147 147 144 142 140 136 133 134 134 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 37 39 38 41 43 44 39 38 35 34 33 35 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -13 -20 -12 -8 -15 -24 -35 -24 -25 -17 -9 -15 -13 -6 -12 -8 200 MB DIV -16 -13 -9 -4 -8 -2 -16 -22 6 9 -3 -4 2 16 22 22 1 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1899 1950 2004 2074 2168 2310 2036 1752 1509 1318 1156 1015 882 750 627 519 443 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.9 129.6 130.3 131.2 133.6 136.4 139.2 141.6 143.5 145.2 146.6 147.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 10 12 12 10 8 6 6 11 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 128.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##