* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 38 39 38 37 35 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 38 39 38 37 35 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 25 24 22 21 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 1 1 2 3 11 10 14 11 15 16 15 20 23 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -4 -7 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 69 108 180 292 348 322 343 342 322 297 275 277 275 256 258 268 279 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 140 141 145 145 146 150 147 149 147 145 144 141 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 42 44 46 43 41 38 37 36 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 2 0 6 7 7 -8 -20 -23 -21 -16 -13 1 7 0 -4 200 MB DIV -3 -19 -11 -14 -9 -8 -14 -14 -11 -3 1 0 -23 7 -2 0 2 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1862 1885 1905 1941 1985 2122 2315 2297 2044 1796 1600 1415 1258 1126 991 862 738 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 14.6 14.0 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.5 128.0 128.5 129.8 131.7 134.2 136.7 139.1 141.0 142.8 144.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 5 6 8 11 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 11 13 14 9 8 9 9 12 12 11 10 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 126.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.92 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.8% 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##