* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 38 37 36 34 35 36 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 38 37 36 34 35 36 37 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 3 3 2 5 7 7 5 7 10 10 11 15 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 57 129 225 265 307 327 345 337 268 253 231 225 232 248 246 270 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 136 138 140 146 145 145 149 145 146 147 144 142 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 41 42 42 45 42 44 43 42 38 36 32 32 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 11 6 4 8 13 0 -18 -27 -16 -12 -7 -11 0 -1 -6 200 MB DIV 3 -4 -8 -7 -14 -4 -6 -3 -2 -15 -2 -8 -26 -3 16 8 -4 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1771 1754 1758 1778 1821 1925 2092 2307 2324 2097 1907 1744 1616 1499 1377 1250 1100 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.3 14.6 13.9 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.4 125.8 126.1 126.4 126.9 127.9 129.4 131.5 133.9 136.1 137.9 139.4 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 5 7 10 12 12 10 8 6 6 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 8 10 16 9 7 10 8 10 13 13 14 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 125.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##