* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 35 38 42 46 50 52 51 49 46 43 41 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 35 38 42 46 50 52 51 49 46 43 41 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 42 42 40 38 34 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 11 10 6 3 3 5 6 8 13 17 21 23 18 16 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -4 3 9 SHEAR DIR 68 61 49 47 64 55 50 20 45 97 152 172 162 151 160 169 184 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 139 137 139 139 139 145 147 145 142 142 142 143 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 50 46 44 47 46 50 52 55 54 48 43 40 38 37 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 21 10 12 9 19 19 17 2 -13 -31 -23 -16 -10 -27 -40 200 MB DIV 23 34 27 2 -11 -15 2 -7 -24 -11 1 -11 -13 -26 -37 -44 0 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1783 1727 1686 1654 1653 1691 1785 1901 2049 2169 2245 2285 2315 2386 2480 2604 2496 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.4 13.8 13.2 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.8 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.7 124.1 124.7 125.6 126.9 128.3 129.3 130.0 130.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 1 4 5 6 7 6 4 2 2 4 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 7 12 14 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 11. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 123.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 18.7% 17.6% 12.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.6% 10.1% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.8% 6.1% 4.1% 0.1% 5.4% 5.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##