* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 26 26 30 33 37 41 42 46 45 43 41 39 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 26 26 30 33 37 41 42 46 45 43 41 39 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 29 30 32 33 33 31 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 16 12 9 3 7 3 8 5 1 9 11 17 21 21 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -3 2 7 5 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 69 75 74 60 47 37 25 21 12 44 79 163 173 166 173 187 194 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 138 139 140 145 149 146 147 145 143 144 145 148 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 48 43 41 42 46 48 48 52 48 44 37 34 31 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 61 57 25 12 13 11 19 15 8 -11 -29 -35 -15 -7 3 1 200 MB DIV 24 32 27 15 6 -10 -6 -6 -7 -18 0 10 -7 -21 -29 -17 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1914 1896 1871 1831 1808 1809 1865 1968 2121 2283 2409 2403 2306 2238 2193 2129 2032 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.4 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.0 125.1 125.1 125.2 125.6 126.2 127.1 128.5 130.2 131.9 133.2 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 6 8 9 8 5 3 3 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 13 17 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 21. 20. 18. 16. 14. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 124.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##