* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 24 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 24 24 24 24 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 10 10 13 15 17 16 3 7 6 6 5 2 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 1 0 0 -1 5 3 2 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 101 83 70 58 72 98 103 70 59 52 256 211 210 158 88 326 302 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.8 27.3 25.7 24.0 22.5 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.6 21.1 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 130 128 125 122 129 135 120 104 89 79 70 62 64 70 72 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 63 66 69 70 73 76 68 60 58 48 42 36 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 16 14 32 40 98 98 84 58 12 -8 -22 -38 -60 -53 -31 4 200 MB DIV 49 51 33 25 41 31 35 44 19 0 -35 -11 -2 -14 -19 -9 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 -5 -2 5 6 1 5 -3 -11 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1326 1325 1337 1351 1375 1421 1452 1385 1191 1016 933 956 1000 989 959 930 867 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.5 15.9 15.8 17.3 19.7 22.2 24.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.0 121.4 121.8 122.2 122.7 122.5 121.5 120.5 120.5 121.9 123.8 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 3 2 4 6 10 13 14 13 7 2 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 3 1 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 22. 19. 15. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 120.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.38 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##