* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 18 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 4 4 8 7 9 6 9 12 20 18 18 10 7 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 2 0 -2 1 -1 -6 -4 -2 0 3 2 9 8 9 SHEAR DIR 204 204 183 138 112 94 104 126 130 104 111 111 88 60 332 298 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.8 25.9 24.4 23.5 21.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 125 122 118 111 109 108 112 115 119 121 108 100 80 71 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 66 66 64 61 64 59 63 62 65 63 63 61 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 46 46 53 35 37 54 58 74 97 94 72 34 -8 -35 -44 200 MB DIV 93 94 68 70 68 64 48 35 29 25 17 21 4 -29 -6 0 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 2 1 1 -1 0 -4 0 16 10 LAND (KM) 1488 1485 1475 1452 1436 1460 1495 1555 1668 1770 1838 1867 1772 1576 1359 1225 1171 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.4 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.3 122.5 122.6 122.6 123.0 123.7 124.5 125.8 127.0 127.6 127.2 126.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 1 3 3 6 6 5 3 4 7 12 16 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 21. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 122.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 10.1% 8.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##