* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 5 11 16 22 21 21 17 15 17 10 5 5 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 1 0 -2 -1 2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 24 37 255 228 201 218 213 207 199 208 219 242 262 289 310 290 284 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.2 26.6 25.4 24.4 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.4 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 135 130 124 129 117 106 112 108 107 107 97 102 107 114 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 64 66 67 66 63 61 54 52 43 41 37 38 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 30 31 30 31 40 49 78 78 94 70 26 -4 11 -14 0 200 MB DIV -10 -20 7 18 14 46 75 72 40 37 30 17 -16 -6 -39 -23 -52 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 0 7 5 9 9 7 6 8 9 11 11 LAND (KM) 1036 1066 1101 1137 1167 1208 1269 1354 1485 1605 1712 1838 1991 2182 1953 1728 1508 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.1 117.7 118.2 119.4 120.8 122.5 124.3 126.2 128.0 129.8 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 6 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 116.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.65 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##