* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 30 35 38 42 42 41 39 36 34 32 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 30 35 38 42 42 41 39 36 34 32 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 5 2 9 12 7 5 1 6 10 14 15 9 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 2 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 31 22 42 43 130 181 186 167 108 141 239 234 228 238 251 267 338 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.2 26.6 26.1 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.9 24.0 23.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 145 145 143 143 134 129 124 111 108 104 102 103 94 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 63 66 70 70 68 65 62 57 55 46 43 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 8 8 6 15 25 32 28 40 49 34 49 50 33 -15 -1 200 MB DIV 17 31 27 10 -4 -5 28 59 66 55 53 16 24 -9 0 -31 -21 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -2 2 12 8 13 8 9 5 LAND (KM) 1015 1022 1022 1013 1030 1045 1072 1121 1169 1229 1350 1461 1589 1760 1964 2137 1889 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.6 18.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.4 114.8 115.0 115.3 116.0 116.8 117.8 119.2 120.9 122.8 125.0 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 58 39 24 19 16 12 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. 14. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.5 113.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 5.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 7.1% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##