* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 32 35 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 26 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 32 35 35 33 32 31 29 27 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 11 10 2 7 9 10 15 18 14 16 13 12 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 4 0 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 17 25 37 38 30 219 231 211 184 210 229 218 224 214 200 209 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.3 26.3 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.3 24.2 25.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 143 135 133 136 135 125 109 110 111 115 104 114 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 59 61 62 65 67 70 66 63 59 56 52 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 39 37 39 29 39 40 47 57 67 57 77 54 59 37 45 200 MB DIV 35 41 44 55 40 14 48 64 67 90 56 35 42 14 9 18 10 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -1 0 -6 -6 -1 -4 -6 3 3 6 5 2 5 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1091 1121 1137 1143 1155 1198 1238 1276 1307 1352 1453 1571 1665 1791 1930 2101 2251 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.9 116.6 117.1 117.5 118.4 119.3 120.3 121.2 122.2 123.7 125.5 127.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 14 13 12 6 5 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 115.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##