* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952021 06/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 31 43 61 74 78 72 75 69 69 68 67 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 31 43 61 74 78 64 40 31 28 27 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 32 35 35 28 27 27 27 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 16 21 21 13 6 5 7 9 2 6 8 4 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 7 8 0 5 10 7 4 SHEAR DIR 22 36 48 40 36 52 41 44 122 155 122 62 316 240 358 360 61 SST (C) 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.6 28.6 26.9 27.0 27.4 28.0 27.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 156 156 153 147 148 151 155 160 150 132 133 138 145 141 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 7 8 7 7 4 4 1 700-500 MB RH 75 78 80 80 80 82 84 83 85 80 78 74 74 74 77 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 9 13 19 20 20 14 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 17 22 25 20 17 13 17 16 83 98 117 107 108 61 49 200 MB DIV 0 8 30 61 62 67 136 122 157 144 138 85 76 73 39 -22 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 0 -1 1 -3 -6 0 -4 5 -6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 536 546 518 511 506 501 478 408 287 143 -13 -190 -280 -259 -15 203 102 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.1 14.2 15.5 17.0 18.8 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.9 96.5 97.6 98.4 99.2 100.2 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.1 100.0 100.1 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 10 8 7 4 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 15 21 22 20 18 19 20 21 26 15 3 3 5 7 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 285 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 42. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 6. 16. 19. 20. 12. 12. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -4. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 11. 23. 41. 54. 58. 52. 55. 49. 49. 48. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 94.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 10.5% 37.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 17.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 06/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##