* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 39 41 47 53 57 60 63 65 65 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 39 41 47 53 57 60 63 65 65 65 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 31 33 36 40 43 46 49 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 11 13 10 9 2 3 1 3 5 7 8 3 9 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 0 4 4 0 0 0 -4 -4 1 -3 4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 319 307 317 317 325 275 272 30 21 73 45 71 120 179 220 158 200 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 158 156 156 154 155 156 156 157 157 160 161 159 159 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 63 61 60 54 52 57 58 61 64 65 65 60 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -46 -52 -61 -60 -33 -14 -5 8 8 8 2 5 24 27 16 22 200 MB DIV 44 48 39 42 42 48 21 3 -24 -17 1 12 36 73 45 8 0 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 736 716 716 721 715 701 686 657 639 637 649 627 559 490 433 383 367 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 14.1 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.1 106.8 106.6 106.8 107.3 107.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 5 6 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 24 23 20 21 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 105.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.39 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 24.5% 22.4% 15.5% 0.0% 21.9% 22.0% 34.2% Logistic: 4.1% 22.8% 9.3% 5.2% 2.4% 10.6% 10.2% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 5.0% 16.8% 10.7% 7.0% 0.8% 10.9% 10.9% 16.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##