* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 42 50 59 75 88 96 101 100 92 84 73 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 30 35 42 50 59 75 88 96 101 100 92 84 73 72 71 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 39 43 55 70 88 100 101 91 76 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 6 6 4 9 8 8 10 10 7 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -6 -4 -5 0 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 58 118 137 134 151 126 132 142 166 176 179 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.1 29.1 28.7 27.4 25.8 25.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 165 167 170 168 157 152 138 121 113 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 5 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 79 80 78 78 78 77 69 59 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 15 17 19 20 23 25 28 31 29 27 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 39 40 40 42 49 68 79 82 69 81 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 108 101 143 122 111 117 102 86 41 14 13 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -5 -6 0 3 -7 -8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 482 469 454 445 463 441 463 490 439 357 367 390 454 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 31 46 39 30 20 14 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 17. 23. 28. 24. 21. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 11. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 29. 45. 58. 66. 71. 70. 62. 54. 43. 42. 41. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 95.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.76 9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -8.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.4% 57.9% 38.4% 28.1% 0.0% 46.5% 66.2% 63.3% Logistic: 22.8% 77.6% 67.7% 54.2% 22.9% 76.4% 77.5% 66.1% Bayesian: 3.4% 21.9% 25.0% 9.4% 0.3% 14.2% 23.6% 36.7% Consensus: 14.2% 52.5% 43.7% 30.6% 7.7% 45.7% 55.7% 55.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 35.0% 18.0% 7.0% 3.0% 32.0% 32.0% 93.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##