* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 06/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 30 31 30 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 30 31 30 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 2 3 7 15 21 28 33 38 44 42 47 39 40 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 0 -5 2 -3 0 -5 -4 -8 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 78 62 50 343 254 231 222 214 215 206 216 217 228 241 247 254 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.7 25.8 23.9 22.6 21.6 20.7 24.6 26.1 26.3 27.2 27.3 26.7 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 131 122 101 87 76 68 109 125 127 136 137 130 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 4 1 6 2 7 4 9 6 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 69 70 62 59 51 49 45 47 44 45 44 45 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 5 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -9 -12 -9 -21 -4 5 27 -10 -7 -14 18 0 4 4 28 200 MB DIV 71 84 94 82 37 18 10 19 17 46 33 35 39 28 27 48 23 700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 -6 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 -4 -8 4 -1 6 -1 2 LAND (KM) 504 521 522 513 418 273 229 108 80 -30 -36 -137 -338 -563 -754 -940 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 17.2 18.2 19.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 25.5 27.5 29.7 31.9 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.6 109.4 110.0 110.7 111.8 112.6 112.9 112.9 112.7 112.2 111.9 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 9 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 400 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -5. -13. -22. -29. -35. -39. -44. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -6. -17. -26. -34. -41. -45. -50. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 107.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 9.4% 7.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##