* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952020 06/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 38 42 39 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 38 42 39 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 29 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 7 3 5 14 24 29 33 36 41 39 36 43 37 41 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -7 -2 -4 -6 -7 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 53 76 147 234 242 230 223 214 212 210 214 216 224 235 244 247 SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.2 27.8 26.4 24.1 22.6 20.5 20.4 19.4 18.4 25.3 26.5 22.6 17.7 17.6 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 148 144 129 105 88 66 64 60 61 116 129 89 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 6 3 3 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 4 1 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 69 69 68 59 55 49 46 42 42 40 38 40 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 11 10 8 -1 -5 26 18 27 8 7 -11 23 26 19 0 200 MB DIV 56 56 58 78 81 27 18 9 23 7 23 14 21 32 14 27 47 700-850 TADV -11 -17 -14 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -12 -8 -12 -8 -1 -1 6 -2 LAND (KM) 425 422 399 421 460 295 268 230 192 77 52 2 -104 -340 -535 -740 -981 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.7 20.7 22.5 24.0 25.4 26.9 28.6 30.4 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.3 107.5 108.6 109.7 111.6 113.1 114.4 114.8 115.0 114.9 114.7 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 10 9 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 7. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -13. -21. -27. -31. -35. -41. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 14. 8. -4. -16. -27. -34. -43. -55. -69. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 105.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952020 INVEST 06/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952020 INVEST 06/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##