* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 25 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 13 13 17 16 16 19 17 19 21 21 25 30 32 34 32 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 0 -2 0 2 -1 4 1 5 4 4 1 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 174 167 162 158 168 183 168 207 205 222 228 245 246 251 246 234 223 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 26.6 24.9 23.7 22.8 22.7 21.7 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.3 19.3 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 154 152 131 113 100 90 88 77 72 68 67 62 60 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 73 71 64 55 51 45 44 41 42 39 38 35 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 47 48 64 72 39 37 17 11 8 32 35 30 16 7 17 7 200 MB DIV 72 46 43 70 74 44 21 4 -1 -2 -7 -15 -10 -6 4 0 7 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 -3 -3 -14 -5 -15 0 -3 3 0 2 1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 371 362 364 368 407 463 470 567 667 771 775 779 751 699 611 522 375 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.8 19.9 20.7 21.3 22.2 23.1 23.8 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 106.3 107.3 108.3 110.8 113.2 115.6 117.6 119.6 120.7 121.4 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 11 12 13 12 11 10 9 6 4 2 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 21 17 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 21. 18. 14. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -15. -22. -29. -36. -43. -51. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 104.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.49 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##